Anabelle Colaco
08 Apr 2026

LONDON, U.K.: A sharp squeeze on immediate oil supplies is pushing physical crude prices close to US$150 a barrel, as refiners compete for available cargoes amid disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.

European and Asian refiners are paying record-high prices for certain crude grades, far exceeding benchmark futures, in a market increasingly driven by near-term scarcity rather than forward expectations.

The conflict has forced the shutdown of at least 12 million barrels per day, about 12 percent of global supply, from the Middle East, following Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Benchmark Brent crude futures rose to $119.50 a barrel last month, their highest level since 2022, but still below the 2008 peak of $147.50. The current nearby Brent contract is for June delivery.

The widening gap between futures and physical prices reflects intense competition among refiners to replace disrupted Middle Eastern supplies, particularly with crude from Europe and Africa available for immediate delivery.

That demand has already pushed some grades to record levels. North Sea Forties crude reached $146.09 a barrel on April 7, according to LSEG data, surpassing its 2008 peak to hit an all-time high.

The main driver of prices, such as that of Forties, is "panic" over supplies, said Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader. "When there is a real, physical shortage, people are not thinking about July delivery - June loading and hence June futures prices - but oil NOW."

The premium for physical oil is also evident in the structure of the Brent benchmark. Dated Brent, the physical crude benchmark reflecting prices for immediate cargo delivery, is trading nearly $20 higher than June Brent futures, according to LSEG data, highlighting the urgency in securing prompt supplies.

"At the moment, the market is scrambling for prompt, refinery-usable barrels, and stress is appearing first in the part of the benchmark that is closest to the immediate physical problem," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report.

The strain is spilling over into refined fuel markets as well. Jet fuel prices in Europe hovered at $226.40 a barrel on April 7, close to a record high reached in mid-March. Diesel prices remained below their 2022 peak but were still elevated at $203.59 a barrel.