Anabelle Colaco
04 May 2026

LONDON, U.K.: OPEC+ is moving ahead with plans to raise oil production targets for June, even as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to disrupt exports from key Middle East producers, according to sources familiar with the group's discussions.

Seven OPEC+ countries have agreed in principle to increase output targets by about 188,000 barrels per day next month, marking the third consecutive monthly rise, the sources said ahead of a policy meeting scheduled for May 3.

The countries involved in the talks are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. While OPEC+ has 21 members, only this smaller group, along with the United Arab Emirates until its recent exit, has been actively setting monthly production targets in recent years.

Despite the planned increase, the additional supply is expected to remain largely theoretical while the conflict continues. The war with Iran, which began on February 28, and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz have severely limited exports from major producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE.

Iran, also part of OPEC+, has seen its own exports reduced due to a U.S. blockade imposed in April.

Industry executives and traders say even if shipping resumes, it could take weeks or months for oil flows to return to normal levels.

The disruption has driven oil prices to a four-year high, rising above US$125 per barrel, and has raised concerns about possible jet fuel shortages within one to two months, as well as a broader increase in global inflation.

The planned June increase is expected to be slightly smaller than the previous month's 206,000-barrel-per-day hike, reflecting the UAE's departure from the group on May 1.

Sources said the decision suggests OPEC+ is maintaining a business-as-usual approach, signaling readiness to increase supply once conditions stabilize.

According to OPEC data, total output from the group averaged 35.06 million barrels per day in March, down by 7.70 million barrels per day from February. The largest reductions came from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, where the ongoing conflict has constrained exports.

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