Anabelle Colaco
19 May 2026

PARIS, France: The head of the International Energy Agency warned on May 18 that commercial oil inventories are being depleted quickly and may last only a few more weeks as the war involving Iran continues to disrupt global energy supplies.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, said inventories are falling sharply following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil and gas exports.

Speaking to reporters during a meeting of Group of Seven finance leaders in Paris, Birol said emergency releases from strategic reserves have added 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to global markets.

However, he cautioned that "these reserves are not endless."

Birol said the start of the spring planting season and summer travel period in the Northern Hemisphere would accelerate the drawdown of inventories as demand rises for diesel, fertilizer, jet fuel, and gasoline.

He told reporters he had described to G7 officials "a perception gap in the markets between the physical markets and the financial markets" for oil.

Before the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February, Birol said, global oil markets were in surplus and commercial inventories were high.

That situation has changed dramatically since the outbreak of the conflict.

Birol said commercial stockpiles would last "several weeks, but we should be aware of the fact that it is declining rapidly."

Last week, the International Energy Agency said global oil supply is now expected to fall short of demand in 2026 as the conflict disrupts Middle Eastern production and drains inventories at an unprecedented pace.

The agency had previously forecast an oil surplus for the year.

According to the agency's latest monthly oil market report, global observed oil inventories fell by a record 246 million barrels in March and April.

The International Energy Agency's 32 member countries agreed in March to coordinate the largest release of emergency oil stocks in the organization's history, authorizing the withdrawal of 400 million barrels to stabilize markets.

By May 8, approximately 164 million barrels had already been released.

The agency now estimates that global oil supply will decline by around 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026 because of the conflict, a much steeper drop than its earlier forecast of 1.5 million barrels per day.