Anabelle Colaco
19 Oct 2026

HOUSTON, Texas: ExxonMobil said soaring refining margins could boost its downstream profit by US$4.5 billion in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, as disruptions to global energy supplies drive fuel prices higher.

Refining margins have surged amid the ongoing Iran war, which has restricted energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.

The resulting rise in fuel prices has created political risks for U.S. President Donald Trump's administration ahead of the November midterm elections. Trump complained in August that Exxon and Chevron were making "too much money".

Exxon's regulatory filing indicates that adjusted net income from its refining business could rise to $8.5 billion, BMO Capital Markets analyst Phillip Jungwirth wrote in a research note. That would be more than double the previous quarter's profit.

The expected refining boost comes despite weaker conditions elsewhere in Exxon's business.

Upstream earnings could take a $1.3 billion hit compared with the second quarter. The average closing price of benchmark Brent crude declined about 5.6 percent during the third quarter from the previous three months, according to LSEG data.

Exxon indicated that it experienced no volume-related disruptions during the quarter stemming from the Iran war.

The company also said divesting some upstream assets would boost earnings by $700 million.

Exxon, the largest U.S. oil producer, is due to report its full third-quarter results on October 30.

Its shares were up less than one percent in pre-market trading on October 16.